On the Likelihood of God's Existence : An Econometric Perspective

This paper derives the measure of likelihood associated with the hypothesis of God's existence. God is defined as an omnipotent, omniscient being. These words are given econometric definitions. The probability of an event is decomposed into its rationality (a measure of subjective preference) and nomicity (a measure of subjective influence). The likelihood of an event is thus a convolution of rationality and nomicity, as a function of the data. The existence of God is thus represented as the state of perfect rationality (omniscience) and perfect nomicity (omnipotence). It is shown that this is the maximum likelihood model for any data set. Hence, the most statistically sound explanation of behavior is "God wanted it that way." However, the ultimate purpose of econometrics is not explanation or prediction, it is to increase the utility of the agent using the analysis. As such, the theory that God causes all behavior may not be economically useful, and is put aside for other theories/models with less likelihood but greater nomic value. The implications for the neoclassical approach to methodology are also considered