On the Statistical Significance of Regional Economic Impacts from Recreational Fishing Harvest Limits in Southern Alaska

Confidence intervals for regional economic impacts resulting from changes in saltwater sportfishing harvest limits are calculated using a stated preference model of sportfishing participation and a social accounting matrix (SAM) for southern Alaska. Confidence intervals are constructed to account for two types of input variation in impact estimates—sample variation in sportfishing-related expenditures and stochastic variation from parameters in the recreation participation model. For five of six policy scenarios examined, estimated impacts are not statistically different from zero. Tests for differences in estimated impacts between scenarios show that no statistical differences are found whenever stochastic variation is considered (statistical differences occur only when sample variation alone is accounted for). Due to the lack of statistical differences in this case, a comparison of economic impacts does not provide a clear-cut preferred alternative, and consequently other economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating policy scenarios should bear greater weight in policy decisions.