Opinion Formation in Business Surveys: Empirical Evidence from German Micro Data

The article contributes to a broader understanding of how firms form its opinion in regular business surveys as we identify determinants of this process. In a large micro panel data set from the Ifo Business Cycle Test in Germany we employ the log-probability model to investigate relationships among categorical variables. Panel causality tests do not reveal strictly exogenous variables in the questionnaire. Ordered random effects probit panel estimations identify macroeconomic determinants of current situation and expectations. Furthermore we intendify some herding effects in the micro data