Optimal aging with uncertain death

This paper extends the theory of optimal aging and death (Dalgaard and Strulik, 2010, 2013) towards uncertain death. Specifically, it is assumed that at any age the probability to survive depends on the number of health deficits accumulated. At the expense of less analytical tractability the model provides a formal description of aging as conceptualized in modern biology, i.e. as an inherently stochastic process according to which the timing of death of a person is not determined by his or her age but by the number of accumulated health deficits. The stochastic model basically confirms the earlier deterministic model with respect to its predictions on the association between income and life-expectancy across countries.