Organized Crime and Foreign Direct Investment: the Italian Case

The paper estimates the effects of organized crime on FDI inflows in 103 Italian provinces in the period 2004-06. The presence of organized crime at a provincial level is quantified through several indicators, based on data for different kinds of crimes: extortion; association for criminal purposes, including mafia (Art. 416 and 416 bis of the Italian Penal Code); attacks; arson. Several control variables are used, included a proxy for (financial) investment incentives provided by public sectors. Estimation suggests that FDI inflows are influenced by different variables. Our results show that the extent of extortion and the number of persons denounced for "criminal association" are significantly and negatively correlated with FDI inflows. Finally, our analysis suggests the presence of organized crime is a strong disincentive for foreign investors, particularly in the less developed Italian provinces.