Os subsídios afetam as exportações agrícolas brasileiras? Análise a partir de modelos gravitacionais

The aim of the study is to estimate the effects of domestic support subsidies from third countries on Brazilian agricultural exports. The study contributes to the existing literature by applying to the dataset the subsidies provided by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for different levels of disaggregation of government support. The gravity model is applied to agricultural flows aggregated and disaggregated by products and to Brazilian and world exports, which allows comparison of results. When considering exports of all agribusiness products, the direct support to the producer (producer support estimate - PSE) has a negative effect on shipments from Brazil in the period analyzed. Considering the General services support estimate (GSSE) and consumer support estimate (CSE), which deal with general subsidies to the sector and support to consumers of agricultural products, respectively, they did not show statistical significance. Starting with a more detailed analysis at the sectoral level, the results were different for different sectors: in relation to soybeans, the main product in the Brazilian agricultural export basket, the product-specific subsidy (single commodity transfers - SCT) did not show statistical significance on Brazilian shipments. In addition, Brazil's corn, pork and beef exports appear to have a positive relationship with subsidies provided by competing countries, while sugar shipments appear to be negatively affected. In the Fisheries and Aquaculture sector, the unavailability of data affected the achievement of econometric results for Brazil, but when considering world exports, it was possible to observe a positive relationship between subsidies and exports, that is, the subsidies provided to fisheries and aquaculture by countries may have contributed to the increase in exports in this sector.