Ost-West-Migrationspotenzial: Wie groß ist es?

How many people from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) will go West making use of the free movement of people after the EU East enlargement? An extrapolation of the empirical experience of the EU South enlargement shows that the emigration potential might reach a corridor between 0.2 % to 0.4 % of total CEEC-population per year. Annual net migraton (including return migration) might be about 0.1 % of total CEEC-population. If we assume that in a first wave 8 countries from CEEC will become EU members (i. e. Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovk Republic, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia), the East-West migration potential will be about 3 %-4 % (gross) and 11/2%-2% (net) of the total CEEC-population within the first 15 years after accession. This is about 3 million people (gross) resp. 1 to 1.5 million people (net) or about 0.8 % of the total EU population. Therefore, fears of "mass migration" seem highly exaggerated. Muchmore, with regard to the decline of the EU population and the ageing of the society the expected East-West-migration potentials will generate rather positive consequences.