Output-based allocation as a form of protection for internationally competitive industries

Policies adopted by Annex B Parties to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to increase costs for industries vulnerable to international competition in domestic or export markets. Domestic emissions trading, by enabling the aggregate emissions target to be met at least cost, helps to reduce the adverse impacts on these industries. An output-based allocation of allowances reduces the output decline due to imposition of the emissions trading program relative to a lump-sum (historic) allocation and so helps reduce the adverse impacts on these industries. The effectiveness of an output-based allocation in maintaining production must be assessed empirically because it depends on the characteristics of all of the firms covered by the trading program as well as other factors. Modeling results for a possible emissions trading program for Alberta confirm the expected impacts of an output-based allocation and indicate that the effectiveness varies across industries. While encouraging greater production, an output-based allocation lowers profits relative to a lump-sum allocation and leads to a different distribution of costs. Other policy options for reducing the output decline in industries vulnerable to international competition include lump-sum allocations or auctioned allowances combined with assistance programs for emission reduction actions or a requirement to meet "world best" emission performance standard. These policy options should be compared with an output-based allocation in terms of effectiveness, total cost and other impacts, before a policy is adopted.© 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.