Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails
We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted likelihood or censored normal likelihood favor density forecasts with more probability mass in the given region, rendering predictive accuracy tests biased towards such densities. Our novel partial likelihood-based scoring rules do not suffer from this problem, as illustrated by means of Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to daily S&P 500 index returns.
Year of publication: |
2008-05-20
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Authors: | Diks, Cees ; Panchenko, Valentyn ; Dijk, Dick van |
Institutions: | Tinbergen Institute |
Subject: | density forecast evaluation | scoring rules | weighted likelihood ratio scores | partial likelihood | risk management |
Saved in:
freely available
Extent: | application/pdf |
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Series: | |
Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Notes: | The text is part of a series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers Number 08-050/4 |
Classification: | C12 - Hypothesis Testing ; C22 - Time-Series Models ; C52 - Model Evaluation and Testing ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications |
Source: |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137187
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