Patterns and Drivers of Embodied Carbon Intensity in International Exports : The Role of Trade and Environmental Policies

International production fragmentation has generated and reallocated value added as well as CO2 emissions across economies. Prior studies have mainly focused on the embodied emissions or value added in trade. The evidence regarding the embodied emission intensity, and particularly the role of policies, however, remains sketchy. This paper investigates the role of trade and environmental policies in embodiment flows by combining input-output analysis and the gravity model of trade, covering 43 economies over 2000 – 2014. First, we derive the domestic carbon and value added contents of bilateral exports in an input-output framework, and find a declining trend in emission intensity in exports. Second, we use the gravity model to examine the determinants of trends in both flows, and further infer the combined effects on intensity. The results show that an open trade policy can lower emission intensity in exports by facilitating the selection of products that are higher in value-added but less emission-intensive. Economies with more stringent environmental policies have a lower emission intensity in exports, but a higher emission intensity in their imports, which suggests carbon leakage. Effective global climate mitigation will require a closer look at the emission intensity in exports and collective action to address the detrimental effects of carbon leakage