Politiques monétaires : à petits pas

Following the decrease in oil prices, inflation went back under 2% in the euro area. But the ECB still considers that risks lie on the upside. The tightening of monetary policy has come close to an end since a last interest increase is scheduled in June 2007. The Federal reserve faced a dilemma between the growth slowdown and the upward trend in underlying inflation. Interest rates have been maintained at 5.25% so far but would been put downward as soon as inflation pressures will be tamed. The Bank of England should proceed to a last hike in 2007 but interest rates would be brought back to 5% at the end of 2008. Finally, the Bank of Japan would wait until the confirmation of the end of deflation before deciding to increase interest rates. JEL code: E520.