POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN THE PRAIRIE REGION OF CANADA

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of long-term climate change, as a consequence of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, on Canadian prairie agriculture. The climate change scenarios are based on regional results from two leading general circulation models (GCMs), and GFDL model and the GISS model. Although both scenarios suggest that average temperatures will increase in all areas of all three provinces by an annual average of 2.6 to 4.6 degrees centigrade, in some areas additional precipitation is enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. Changes in crop revenues under current economic/technological conditions range from a 7% loss in Alberta under one GFDL scenario to an 8% increase in Saskatchewan under a slight different GFDL scenario.