The Power of Inclusive Labor Force Participation for Mitigating Population Aging : Closing Gaps at the Intersection Between Race/Ethnicity and Gender in the United States
René Böheim, Thomas Horvath, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer
We develop a dynamic microsimulation model to project the labor force and economic dependency ratios in the United States from 2022 to 2060, taking population projections and the large inequalities between population groups of different race/ethnicity and gender into account. We contrast policy scenarios and show the potential impact that closing the gaps in education, health, and participation rates between population subgroups can have on increasing the U.S. labor force. Our baseline projections indicate an increase of the labor force of about 27 million people by 2060, which is mainly caused by population growth. The downstream effects of removing disparities in population health and educational attainment on labor force participation can add about 10% (+2.6 million people) to our baseline projections. The potential effects of closing gaps between genders and between minority groups and the non-Hispanic White population, however, are much larger if we assume the equalization of participation rates for individuals with similar characteristics. Closing gender gaps within ethno-racial groups, for instance, can add 9.9 to 14.3 million people to the labor force. Overall, reducing disparities in labor force participation rates has the potential to more than compensate the effects of demographic aging on the economic dependency ratio
Year of publication: |
June 2024
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Authors: | Böheim, René ; Horvath, Gerard Thomas ; Leoni, Thomas ; Spielauer, Martin |
Institutions: | National Bureau of Economic Research (issuing body) |
Publisher: |
Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research |
Subject: | Arbeitskräftepotenzial | Labour force | Erwerbstätigkeit | Employment | Arbeitskräfte | Workforce | Bevölkerungswachstum | Population growth | Alternde Bevölkerung | Aging population | Demographie | Demography | Geschlechterunterschiede | Gender differences | Ethnische Diskriminierung | Ethnic discrimination | Bildungsniveau | Educational achievement | Simulation | Prognose | Forecast | USA | United States |
Saved in:
Online Resource
Extent: | 1 Online-Ressource illustrations (black and white) |
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Series: | NBER working paper series ; no. w32590 |
Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Type of publication (narrower categories): | Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature |
Language: | English |
Notes: | Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers |
Other identifiers: | 10.3386/w32590 [DOI] |
Classification: | C5 - Econometric Modeling ; J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts ; J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure |
Source: | ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576619