Prévention du risque-retraite et comportement d'accumulation global des ménages

With population ageing in a changing PAYG system context, our aim is to identify whether households take into account a retirement risk in their global accumulation behaviour. We define the retirement risk as a long term revenue risk linked with changes in the generosity of the PAYG system. We estimate three ordered PROBIT models, at the three inquiry dates, with the same explicative life cycle and risk variables. The different meanings of the risk proxy’s used, make it possible to conclude that risks play a role in the global accumulation choices of the households, but we cannot identify the precise role of the retirement risk in these choices. A complementary study explores interactions between risk aversion and the decision of a specific prevention of the retirement risk.