Prévisions des prix des négociants de vin par les cours producteurs : une étude empirique à partir de 10 appellations de vins de Bourgogne

The aim of this study is to identify the micro-economic determinants of the Burgundy wine. Using yearly data, from 1980 to 1999 concerning : harvest, price downstream, inventories downstream, price uphill, inventories uphill, we proceed in two steps : - first step : we try to establish causal relationships between prices (selling price of the wine-grower to traders) and the price « catalogue » of sellers ; - second step : we increase the number of variable by introducing variables of supply and the level of inventories (wine-grower and trader). In order to realize this analysis we have adopted the VAR methodology by using tests of Granger-causality, as recommended by Toda and Phillips (1993). Our result show a strong relationship between the prices, variables of supply and inventories. They confirm those obtained in the first step and show that inventories play a role in the setting of prices.