Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic

This paper investigates the determinants of the movements in the capital-assets-management-earnings-liquidity-sensitivity to market risk (CAMELS) and the longterm Standard & Poors (S&P) bank ratings in the Czech Republic during the periods when the three largest banks, representing approximately 60 percent of the Czech banking sector's total assets, were first privatized (1998-2001) and then had sufficient time to operate under new owners (2002-2005). The same list of explanatory variables employed by the Czech National Bank's banking sector regulators, corresponding to the inputs of the CAMELS rating, are examined for both ratings to select their significant predictors. We employ an ordered-response logit model to analyze the long-run S&P rating and a standard panel data framework for the CAMELS rating. We find significant explanatory power for capital adequacy, funding spread, the ratio of total loans to total assets, the value-at-risk for total assets, and leverage.