Predicting China’s Land-use Change and Soil Carbon Sequestration under Alternative Climate Change Scenarios

This paper examines and predicts the effects of climate change and climate extremes on China’s land use conversion and soil carbon sequestration under two alternative climate change scenarios. It intends to investigate the following three questions. 1) How did climate factors affect land-use conversion in China from 1988 to 2000 and what was the relative importance of these factors? 2) How would the predicted future climate change pattern affect land-use choice under alternative climate change scenarios? 3) How would the predicted future climate pattern change the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon in China? The study makes two contributions to the literature. First, it integrates climate change, land use conversion, and soil carbon sequestration into a whole model, which facilitates a comprehensive, systematic analysis. Second, it employs a unique dataset, consisting of high-quality Geographic Information System (GIS) data on climate, land use, and soil properties. To the best of our knowledge, no one has used such detailed Chinese data for economic research.