Predicting The Level Of Falsification Of Financial Statements In Russian Manufacturing Enterprises In 2012–2019

This paper considers the falsification of financial reports at Russian manufacturing enterprises in the period from 2012 to 2019. The factors are associated with the heterogeneity of estimates of falsified financial statements. We investigate the evolution of such reporting during the period under review.Two main lines of behavior of companies in relation to falsified corporate reporting are identified: either a consistently "honest" strategy, which is characteristic of no more than 30–50% of the enterprises, or situational behavior, when an enterprise provides either reliable or questionable data in certain years depending on their circumstances.For large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, the quality of the reporting provided has generally improved in the sanctions period of 2015–2019 compared to the pre-sanction period.Based on econometric calculations, we demonstrate that the main factors associated with the provision of inaccurate reporting are the size of the enterprise, and the growth rate of accounts receivable in previous years