Predicting the Signs of Forecast Errors

The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis, because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters

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Year of publication:	2014
Authors:	Solferino, Nazaria ; Waldmann, Robert
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (14 p)
Series:	CEIS Working Paper ; No. 135
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments November 1, 2008 erstellt
Other identifiers:	10.2139/ssrn.1306279 [DOI]
Classification:	G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies ; E47 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014212631