Preventive resettlement in anticipation of sea level rise: a choice experiment from Alexandria, Egypt

The city of Alexandria, Egypt, is highly exposed to sea level rise putting communities at risk to related coastal hazards such as storm surges and inundation. In the future, preventive resettlement may become a realistic and, under some conditions, unavoidable adaptation policy to sea level rise. Many examples of failed resettlement projects exist worldwide, wherein the resettled populations faced increased social and economic risks. This paper investigates the preferences of vulnerable people in Alexandria for preventive resettlement programs in response to sea level rise. A choice experiment was conducted to assess the willingness to participate in voluntary resettlement programs and to identify important factors that influence the decision to participate. This can help policy makers to design people-centered resettlement programs that provide the right incentives to increase voluntary participation. Results show that for those who are, in principle, willing to resettle, factors such as transparency of the relocation process, public/social infrastructure, financial compensation, housing and income/job security can significantly influence their choices. However, a large share of the population is not willing to resettle given the proposed alternative resettlement programs included in the choice experiment. Urban households are more likely to be unwilling to resettle, while factors such as income insecurity and fewer social relationships decrease the probability of choosing not to resettle ceteris paribus. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015