Probabilistic Methodology for Adequacy Assessment under Uncertainty for a Multi-Region System

We develop a novel probabilistic methodology for consistently assessing system adequacy within an interconnected region. Relevant stochastic quantities, such as load and generation from wind and PV, are characterized by the help of quantile regressions and copulas. Based on this characterization, Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to assess system adequacy. This allows calculating adequacy indicators such as LOLP and LOLE for very secure systems with small contingency probabilities. Common assessment indicators are used to compare system adequacy both for individual countries and the interconnected system within the region considered. The developed methodology is applied to the CWE region in the year 2025. We show that including interconnections to neighboring countries, which is modelled as flow-based market coupling, increases generation adequacy significantly. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of correlated stochastic distributions and maintenance scheduling. Both these factors have significant implications on the ability of the system to solve shortages through multilateral cooperation