PROBLEMS IN MODELING COMPLEX DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS: THE POLITICAL REALIGNMENT OF THE 1850s
This paper argues that a model of sequential choice is superior to the standard rational choice model in explaining a process as complex and dynamic as the political realignment of the 1850s. Part 1 sketches the facts and processes that need to be encompassed by a model and identifies key branching points. Part 2 describes an appropriate model of sequential choice and discusses procedures for estimating transition probabilities and the impact of key variables on these transition probabilities. Part 3 identifies implicit assumptions of rational choice theory that limit its usefulness. Copyright 1992 Blackwell Publishers Ltd..
Year of publication: |
1992
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Authors: | Fogel, Robert William |
Published in: |
Economics and Politics. - Wiley Blackwell. - Vol. 4.1992, 3, p. 215-254
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Publisher: |
Wiley Blackwell |
Saved in:
freely available
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