Projecting futuristic scenarios for Indian Railway Security System (IRSS) using fuzzy dominance and contingency planning

Purpose: Physical security has remained an important reason for, and the consequence of, societal living. In recent times, the threat potential and the risks of loss and damage due to criminal activities have increased substantially. In Indian Railways, it is being increasingly felt that efficient security management is inevitable for the development and sustainability of desired state of affairs. The purpose of this paper is to address the broad goal of achieving optimal strategies for minimizing security threats to Indian Railway Security System (IRSS). Design/methodology/approach: The authors use two forecasting techniques, namely, Delphi technique and Harva method, whose joint approach allows the authors to use both quantifiable (Delphi technique) and linguistic (Harva method) data. The choice of the two approaches provides a multi-method approach to the research problem. Findings: Predicted trend toward the expected scenario in 2020 has more or less matched with the actual developments for improvement in security scenario of Indian Railways. The positive indications are that there is an improving trend, which is expected to lead to a much better state of affairs with certain inputs. Research limitations/implications: The joint approach of Delphi technique and Harva method is a multi-method example of original research work in the railway security, which can also be implemented in other security settings, such as aviation or marine security. A replication of the exercise closer to the target date will throw light on the exact state of affairs in the area of railway security in India. Practical implications: An outcome in consonance with the present exercise has been the implementation of the policy developed on the basis of the forecasts. Policy efforts initiated in the recent past have been consistent with the features discussed in the study. From the above indicators, it can be inferred that some of the policy initiatives taken are in line with the trend status as predicted by the Delphi exercise. Social implications: Security has been considered as an important reason, as well as a consequence, of living in a society. It has been perceived as the condition of being protected against danger or loss, and also refers to the freedom from exposure to danger (protection), implying a feeling of assurance against danger. Research work in this area, thus, has strong social welfare implications. This is particularly so as the area of security gained importance, not only in India, but also across the world. Originality/value: The present study is the first of its kind in the area of railway security using systems approach. The approach used is quite generic and can also be implemented in other security settings, such as aviation or marine security.