Projecting the Future Ecosystem Service Value of Baguio City, the Philippines, Through Scenario-Based Land Use/Cover Change Modeling

The main purpose of this study is to examine the potential impacts of the past and future land use/cover (LUC) changes on the ecosystem services of Baguio city, the Philippines, and discuss their implications for policy development and implementation. Remote sensing-derived LUC maps for 1988, 1998 and 2009, along with GEOMOD, a Geographic Information Systems-based LUC change model, and ecosystem service value (ESV) coefficients were used to facilitate the analysis. The results revealed a decrease in the ESV of Baguio for the past 21 years (1988e2009), of which a substantial amount was due to loss of forest cover. Consequently, the human-to-ESV (H-ESV) ratio has decreased over the years. The scenario-based LUC change analysis revealed that if the urban LUC change pattern continues, the total ESV and the HESV ratio will also continue to decrease in 2020, especially if the forest cover is not fully protected and conserved. Geospatial tools and techniques facilitate exploratory analysis critical to the understanding of the potential impacts of future LUC changes under different scenarios. Our results highlighted that under the great pressure of urbanization, there is a need to strengthen the proper implementation of policies in order to maintain and improve ecosystem services. Although there are limitations to the estimated ESVs of Baguio to be taken into account in future studies, the magnitude of the estimated changes in the LUC is substantial. Thus, it may still be possible to draw general inferences about the effect of the perceived LUC changes on the estimated ESVs. This paper has been published as: Examining the Potential Impact of Land Use/Cover Changes on the Ecosystem Services of Baguio city, the Philippines: A Scenario-Based Analysis