Projections of Chinese Energy Demands in 2020

As current trends of Chinese economic growth and motorization continue, its demand for higher efficiency fuels (oil, gas, and electric power) will increase. This, coupled with China’s limited domestic production, can translate into a massive demand for energy imports. To predict China’s energy demand into 2020, an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy is constructed based on its energy balance. This paper suggests that China’s increase demand for energy imports will be most sensitive to increases in motorization rather than economic growth. It can be partially offset by increasing domestic energy production or energy efficiency.