Prospects and Economic Priorities for a Durable Peace in Afghanistan

This paper aims to examine economic prospects and challenges for a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan. In doing so, it explores the state of the economy and conflict, prospects for a political settlement, priorities and the political economy. The paper uses primary and secondary data from the Afghan government, the World Bank and other international institutions. It also builds on 15 semi-structured interviews with a broad category of people and recent developments in the process of negotiations for a political settlement in Afghanistan. The interviewees were not exclusively economists as the intention was to assess the current state of the economy and conflict by interviewing key actors and observers in the field. The paper uses a political economy approach. In particular, it employs the concept of social orders and political settlement to offer an explanation about the negotiations for peace in Afghanistan, while also recognising the limits of conceptual framing and complexities of the process