Quão efetivo é um benefício de cobertura de hiato da pobreza em um contexto de informalidade e volatilidade de renda? O caso do Programa Bolsa Família

Based on data from the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Contínua/ IBGE 2019), we compare the current benefit model for the Bolsa Família programme (whose main strategy for fighting extreme poverty consists of a top-up benefit) with a microssimulation of an alternative flat-rate benefit model, paid to all extremely poor people and poor children covered by the programme. The total budget is the same. The top-up benefit seems to perform marginally better than the flat-rate benefit, but the difference is not statistically significant. The extreme poverty rate observed in 2019 (measured by the programme's lower eligibility threshold of BRL 89 per capita per month) was of 4.1%, whereas it would have been 4.3% if the programme had a flat-rate benefit. This advantage was also observed in the other FGT poverty measures, again with non-significant results.