Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts

Ohnsorge, Franziska L

This paper presents a procedure to construct an asymmetric fan chart of risks around global growth forecasts. The distribution of risks around global growth forecasts is estimated by weighting information extracted from option pricing and survey-based measures of risk factors of global growth. The weights are estimated using a vector autoregression analysis. The empirical estimates indicate that forecast uncertainty has increased since January 2016, while the balance of risks to global growth has tilted to the downside

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Year of publication:	2016
Authors:	Ohnsorge, Franziska L.
Other Persons:	Stocker, Marc (contributor) ; Some, Modeste Y. (contributor) ; Ohnsorge, Franziska L. (contributor)
Publisher:	2016: Washington, D.C : The World Bank
Subject:	Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Wirtschaftswachstum \| Economic growth \| Welt \| World

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (24 p)
Series:	World Bank E-Library Archive
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.1596/1813-9450-7770 [DOI]
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012245869