Quantity-Quality Trade-Off in Northeast China During the Qing Dynasty

We paint a detailed picture of whether the trade-off between human capital and fertility decisions was shaped in a pre-industrial society during the Qing dynasty. Using data from the China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset-Liaoning (CMGPD-LN), we investigate 16,328 adult males born between 1760 and 1880 in Northeast China. We control for birth-order effects and for a rich set of individual-, parental-, household-, and village-level characteristics in regression analyses on individuals from different household categories (elite vs. non-elite households). Our findings suggest that sibship size, as instrumented by twins at last birth, starts to have a substantial negative effect on the probability of receiving an education, indicating the emergence of a child quantity-quality trade-off for large parts of the population belonging to the Eight Banner System in Liaoning around the mid-Qing dynasty. Our results provide supportive evidence for the unified growth theory, showing that the decreased fertility rates in pre-transition China could be a result of rational behaviors perpetuated by households in response to higher educational returns and accessibility