Réflexions sur la conjoncture
Henry (Louis). - Some reflections on the study of demographic situations ("conjonc- tural demography") The expression "conjonctural demography", in its present sense of the study of recent demographic situations, was adopted relatively late. A related expression, "conjonctural measure" has not yet been included in any demographic dictionary. This is linked to the history of demography, which was dominated for centuries by the study of mortality. One index, life expectancy at birth, was a good summary index of the situation. It was thus tempting to look for a similar summary index for fertility and nup- tiality. But the vast difference between demographic phenomena was neglected, which led to the exaggerated success of the net reproduction rate between the two world wars. This was criticized by the Royal Commission, who gave the cohort approach to fertility and nuptiality the place it should always have had. But because events influence behaviour, it was necessary to look for "conjonctural measures" - synthetic measures summarizing the present situation - which are much more sensitive to this influence than the corresponding cohort measures. Conjunctural measures have the advantage of providing a simple, rapid means of informing the government and public opinion, and of drawing attention to the possible future consequences of maintaining values which are too high or too low.
Year of publication: |
1991
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Authors: | Henry, Louis |
Published in: |
Population (french edition). - Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED). - Vol. 46.1991, 6, p. 1577-1588
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Publisher: |
Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED) |
Saved in:
freely available
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