Rational Bubbles : Theoretical Basis, Economic Relevance, and Empirical Evidence with a Special Emphasis on the German Stock Market

This book evaluates formally the theory of rational bubbles. A general procedure for deriving rational bubbles is provided in the first part of the book. All bubble processes discussed in literature so far could be obtained by the procedure presented. Furthermore, the set of bubble processes has been extended significantly. After presenting the most important applications various approaches of testing for rational bubbles are summarized. Finally, a so called direct test for the existence of some previously obtained new bubble processes on the German Stock market is carried out. It became evident that the movement of stock prices, in particular during 1985 - 1987 and at the beginning of 1990s, could be well explained by the existence of rational bubbles, at least when stock indexes were used