Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)

The success of the integration process of the new EU Member States is reflected by their nominal and real convergence performance. These tendencies are of special importance considering further enlargement of the Eurozone. The financial and economic crisis of 2008 has resulted, however, in a fundamentally new situation as regards these issues. The paper considers the experiences gained in real convergence, the catch-up processes and their future prospects. As for nominal convergence, only those factors were analysed which affect real convergence directly. In particular, the analysis focuses on the sustainability of the convergence processes. The possible trends of longer term growth and convergence processes are presented based on a qualitative analysis representing the supply side approach. The analysis is aimed at revealing potential – not insignificant – risks and threats.