Real Estate Sector Response to Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the performance of the real estate sector proxied by Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) returns in the United States. Using monthly REIT index data and the monthly changes in a newly constructed index of economic policy uncertainty (∆EPU) in the United States spanning 1985-2011, we investigate the impulse response functions of the REIT returns to the changes in economic policy uncertainty using a vector auto regression (VAR) analysis. The Granger-causality test is also performed to determine if economic policy uncertainty causes the fluctuations in REIT returns. The relationship is weaker for mortgage investments than the total index. When mediated by the CRSP Value Weighted Stock Returns, the relationship between REIT returns and the ∆EPU becomes insignificant