Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey, 1987-2003 (in Turkish)
Real exchange rate misalignment measures deviations of actual real exchange rate from its long-run, or equilibrium, level. Policy makers and many researchers are interested in predicting and monitoring misalignment in the foreign exchange market, because, in many cases, it is closely related to possible current account problems or impending currency crises. This study mainly aims to discuss the sensitivity of estimation results to the alternative combinations of different actual real exchange rate indices and equilibrium definitions, by using quarterly data from 1987 to 2003 for Turkish lira. The 16 measures of misalignment employed in this study show that the differences between these alternative measures vary between 6.5 and 36.5 percent points, which actually is a strong indication for high sensitivity of the degree of misalignment to the combination of the actual real exchange rate index and the definition of its long-run level. ABSTRACT IN TURKISH: TURKIYE'DE UZUN-DONEM REEL DOVIZ KURU DENGESIZLIGI, 1987-2003. Cari reel doviz kurunun uzun-donem denge reel doviz kurundan sapma derecesi, son yillarda iktisatcilar ve politika yapicilar tarafindan giderek daha cok olculmeye, izlenmeye ve aciklanmaya calisilmaktadir. Bu calismada, once farkli cari reel doviz kuru tanimlari uzerinde durulup uzun-donem reel denge doviz kuru olcum yontemleriyle ilgili genis literatur ozetlenmekte; daha sonra ise, Turkiye ekonomisiyle ilgili az sayidaki ampirik arastirma yontem, donem ve bulgulari acisindan kisaca karsilastirilmaktadir. Calisma; Turkiye'de 1987-2003 yillarinda meydana gelen "reel doviz kuru sapmalari"nin farkli yontem ve varsayimlara gore guncel zaman serisi teknikleri kullanilarak tahmin edilmesini ve sapmalarin derecesindeki degismelerin olgusal ve makroekonomik bilgiler isiginda degerlendirilmesini amaclamaktadir. Arastirmanin bulgulari; kullanilan 16 farkli cari kur - denge kuru bilesiminin veri donemler icin 6.5 ile 36.5 yuzde puan arasinda degisen ciddi sapma tahmini farkliliklari dogurabildigini gostermektedir.]
