Recent Trends in Australian Fertility

A new Productivity Commission Staff Working Paper finds that there is no current or impending fertility crisis in Australia. Births in Australia are at an historical high – with around 285 000 babies born in 2007. This corresponds to an estimated total fertility rate1 of 1.93 babies per woman, the highest since the early 1980s. The key question for Australia’s demographic future is whether (business cycle effects aside) fertility levels will stay at roughly their current level, or resume the downward trend apparent before the recent recovery. There is no fertility ‘crisis’. Fertility rates have been generally rising for the last six years, and evidence suggests that after its long downward trend since the Second World War, Australia’s fertility rate may have stabilised at around 1.75 to 1.9 babies per woman. Overall, Australia appears to be in a ‘safe zone’ of fertility, despite fertility levels below replacement levels. With current fertility rates, Australia’s population growth rate is still projected to be one of the highest in the developed world because of migrant inflows