Reforms, WTO, arbitrage efficiency and integration between the China-US soybean markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach to market analysis, and test how the China-US soybean market integration and arbitrage efficiency have changed across 1995/1-/2004/1 – a period covering strengthened government efforts to join WTO, and the institutional changes following WTO accession. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ a regime-switching model with parametric, semi-parametric, and nonparametric measures to discern different market conditions in the sample period, as well as detect the structural shifts over time. Three types of data – expected prices, transaction costs, and trade flow – are used for the analysis. Findings – Results of the analysis indicate better integration over time, but deteriorating efficiency. The markets often departed from efficient arbitrage throughout the study periods, and counter-intuitively worsened after China's elimination of quota in 1999, and accession to WTO in 2001. One other interesting finding is that the state monopoly practice in soybean trading during the early periods produced seemingly competitive equilibrium price relationships. Originality/value – The paper is an original work that provides policy implications regarding the impacts and effectiveness of government policies on China's international soybean markets, the remaining bottlenecks, and the challenge to both Chinese soybean farmers and the US exporters. The method of identifying trade variation in a price model and the combination of parametric and semi-parametric analyses with comprehensive data further permits more accurate and intuitive interpretations previously unavailable. JEL classifications: F15, Q17, Q18, C10