Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida

Regional econometric forecasting accuracy assessment has traditionally received less attention than its macroeconometric counterpart. While evidence is available that state and local employment forecasts perform well relative to standard benchmarks, little is known about the historical performance of widely cited regional housing start forecasts. This paper attempts to partially fill that gap in the literature by assessing the accuracy of previously published residential construction forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan areas. Results indicate that regional econometric housing start forecasts are less reliable than regional employment structural model forecasts.