Regional economic growth: an evaluation of the Northern Territory

The Gross Product of the Northern Territory accounts for approximately 1.2% of Australian GDP. The economic growth record of NT in the past few years has been well below all Australian states and territories but the per capita income of NT remains higher than the national per capita income. Due to continued interstate migration, higher birth rate among the indigenous population and the inability of NT to attract international migrants, the Territory's population mix is slowly changing. This paper shows that the NT's economic growth rate is closely linked to the growth rate of labour force and private investment. Although the overall labour force participation-rate is almost unchanged, the male and female participation rates are moving in the opposite direction. Finally, the paper presents short-term forecasts for NT's Gross State Product per person employed, private investment and employment. The forecasting exercise shows that the cyclical pattern is likely to continue in the near future.