Regional Reallocation of Russian Industry in Transition

In this paper we suggest to use a 'new economic geography' paradigm for explanation of regional reallocation of industrial employment in Russia in 1985-1999. We construct a new economic geography" type model adjusted to specific features of Russian economy. This model gives a counterfactual distribution of industry across regions and allows us to construct a theoretical factor NEGF which is supposed to predict real changes in allocation of industrial employment. Our analysis of empirical data shows that NEGF indeed has a predictive power and this result is valid for a sufficiently wide range of model specifications.