Relationship between population change and resident characteristics: The case of the Nagasaki Prefecture in Japan

Population decline is currently a serious problem in Japan. In this study, the population change rates of municipalities in the Nagasaki Prefecture were examined using a classification of the resident characteristics of small areas. A total of 14 variables were selected from the small area data of the 2015 census to examine the resident characteristics of the small areas, and these variables were analyzed via factor and cluster analyses. As a result, the variables were classified into six resident characteristic clusters. The classified resident characteristics are Cluster 1: urban professionals, Cluster 2: nuclear families with children living in rental housing, Cluster 3: areas without residents, Cluster 4: blue-collar workers, Cluster 5: manufacturing and industry workers, and Cluster 6: typical farmers. We conducted a regression analysis using the population change rate in each municipality as a response variable and each of the six regions classified in the municipalities as the explanatory variable. We found that Cluster 2 has the greatest influence on the population growth rate. We examined the distribution of each regional classification. It is suggested that the areas classified as Cluster 2 are often distributed in areas outside densely inhabited districts and that emerging residential areas for nuclear family households with children are formed in the suburbs of cities. Municipalities with a high proportion of Cluster 2 are likely to be commuting towns in the Nagasaki and Sasebo employment metropolitan areas, suggesting that the population reduction rate is low due to the accumulation of residents from surrounding areas.