Renegotiating NAFTA : Implications for Canada of Possible Trump Administration Policies

Building on, and indeed ratcheting up, the rhetoric of the US election campaign, the new Trump Administration has signalled disruptive change to US trade relations. The not-yet-in-force Trans-Pacific Partnership was torn up on day one of the new presidential term, the future of NAFTA was thrown into great uncertainty following the breakdown of a NAFTA leaders meeting, and punitive tariff rhetoric could impact significantly on corporate import-sourcing decisions, disturbing established supply chains. Canada is not the principal target in the cross-hairs of the Trump Administration – this bilateral relationship only needs “tweaking” from the Trump Administration perspective, based on the first leader’s meeting – but Canada has never gotten a bye when the United States has moved on its perceived commercial interests. This note sketches out the likely contours of a NAFTA renegotiation, focussing on Canada’s interests, on the premise that NAFTA will survive the political challenges that have emerged