Retard ou refus du mariage : l'évolution récente de la première nuptialité en France et sa prévision
Le Bras Hervé and Roussel Louis. ? Delay in Marriage or Refusal to Marry? Recent Movements in First Marriages in France and Prospects for the Future. Two series of age-specific rates of first marriage are studied (those for France and Sweden between 1972 and 1980). Simulation methods are used in an attempt to find a law which would describe movements in these rates. It is shown that neither changes in the timing of marriage, nor changes in the level of nuptiality, are by themselves sufficient to account for the decline in nuptiality rates, nor does a combination of these two factors provide an adequate explanation. The model which fits the observed rates most closely is obtained when the population is divided into two groups. In the first group, which is steadily decreasing in numbers, marriage patterns remain the same as during the period before the trend began to change (1972 in France). Members of the second group which is increasing in numbers, delay their marriage. The probability that members of this second group will never marry is increasing, and the risk becomes greater the longer the marriage is delayed. The close fit between the model and the observed rates, as well as the simple nature of the hypothesis suggest that the model can be used as a reliable instrument to project nuptiality into the future. It may be concluded that members of the younger generations are unlikely to return to a marriage pattern in which some 95 per cent marry at least once. Indeed, it seems likely that among women born between 1955 and 1959, no more than 80 per cent will ever marry, and this proportion is likely to continue to decrease still further.
Year of publication: |
1982
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Authors: | Roussel, Louis ; Bras, Hervé Le |
Published in: |
Population (french edition). - Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED). - Vol. 37.1982, 6, p. 1009-1044
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Publisher: |
Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED) |
Saved in:
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