Rethinking capital regulation : the case for a dividend prudential target

Recent empirical studies have documented two remarkable patterns shown by euro area banks in the aftermath of the Great Recession: (i) their tendency to boost capital ratios by shrinking assets (contraction of loans supply), and (ii) their reluctance to cut back on dividends (fall in retained earnings). First, I provide evidence of a potential link between these two trends. When shocks hit their pro ts, banks tend to adjust retained earnings to smooth dividends. This generates bank equity and credit supply volatility. Then I develop a DSGE model that incorporates this mechanism to study the transmission and effects of a novel macroprudential policy rule - that I shall call Dividend Prudential Target (DPT) - aimed at complementing existing capital regulation by tackling this issue. Welfare-maximizing DPTs are effective (more than the CCyB) in smoothing the financial and the business cycle (by means of less volatile retained earnings) and induce signi cant welfare gains associated to a Basel III-type of capital regulation through various channels.