Return of the ‘National’ in Indian Elections: When do National-level Factors Play a Role in Influencing the Outcomes of State Assembly Elections?

The outcome of the assembly elections held in November 2013 in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi could possibly be summarized in one sentence: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retained Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and the incumbent Indian National Congress (INC) lost power in Rajasthan and Delhi. It was a 4–0 defeat for the Congress. What explains the Congress’ rout in these four states? Moreover, why did the BJP do well? And how did a new political outfit—Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)—manage a stunning debut in Delhi within a year of its formation? Using data from the pre-poll and post-poll surveys from the above mentioned states, we find that there was a visible dissatisfaction with the Congress-led UPA government at the centre and that led to the party’s debacle during the elections. We suggest that the interaction of two variables—temporal proximity of state assembly elections to Lok Sabha elections and nature of party competition in the state— determines when national-level factors would play important role in influencing electoral outcomes in state elections.