Revisited Measles and Chickenpox Dynamics through Orthogonal Transformation
The question addressed is whether or not childhood epidemics such as measles and chickenpox are characterized by low-dimensional chaos. We propose a new method for the detection and extraction of hidden periodic components embedded in an irregular cyclical series, and study the characterization of the epidemiological series in terms of the characteristic features or periodicity attributes of the extracted components. It is shown that the measles series possesses two periodic components each having a period of one year. Both the periodic components have time-varying pattern, and the process is nonlinear and deterministic; there is no evidence of strong chaoticity in the measles dynamics. The chickenpox series has one seasonal component with stable pattern, and the process is deterministic but linear, and hence non-chaotic. We also propose surrogate generators based on null hypotheses relating to the variability of the periodicity attributes to analyse the dynamics in the epidemic series. The process dynamics is also studied using seasonally forced SEIR epidemic model, and the characterization performance of the proposed schemes is assessed.
Year of publication: |
1999
|
---|---|
Authors: | Kanjilal, Partha.P. ; Bhattacharya, Joydeep |
Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Saved in:
freely available
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
2004 Midwest macroeconomics meetings
Bhattacharya, Joydeep, (2004)
-
2004 Midwest macroeconomics meetings
Bhattacharya, Joydeep, (2004)
-
Reference‐dependent preferences, time inconsistency, and pay‐as‐you‐go pensions
Andersen, Torben M., (2021)
- More ...