Extent: | Online-Ressource (digital) |
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Series: | |
Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Notes: | Description based upon print version of record Preface; Acknowledgments; Contents; Part I Introduction to Risk Analysis; to 1 Quantitative Risk Assessment Goals and Challenges; The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Paradigm; Example: A Simple QRA Risk Assessment Model; Example: Explicit QRA Reasoning Can Be Checked and Debated; Against QRA: Toward Concern-Driven Risk Management; Dissatisfactions with QRA; Example: Use of Incorrect Modeling Assumptions in Antimicrobial Risk Assessment; Example: Use of Unvalidated Assumptions in a QRA for BSE (''Mad Cow'' Disease); Toward Less Analytic, More Pluralistic Risk Management Alternatives to QRA in Recent Policy Making: Some Practical ExamplesConcern-Driven Risk Management; Potential Political Advantages of Concern-Driven Regulatory Risk Management; How Effective Is Judgment-Based Risk Management?; Example: Expert Judgment vs. QRA for Animal Antibiotics; Performance of Individual Judgment vs. Simple Quantitative Models; Performance of Consensus Judgments vs. Simple Quantitative Models; Example: Resistance of Expert Judgments to Contradictory Data; Example: Ignoring Disconfirming Data About BSE Prevalence Example: Consensus Decision Making Can Waste Valuable Individual InformationHow Effective Can QRA Be?; Summary and Conclusions; to 2 Introduction to Engineering Risk Analysis; Overview of Risk Analysis for Engineered Systems; Example: Unreliable Communication with Reliable Components; Example: Optimal Number of Redundant Components; Example: Optimal Scheduling of Risky Inspections; Using Risk Analysis to Improve Decisions; Hazard Identification: What Should We Worry About?; Example: Fault Tree Calculations for Car Accidents at an Intersection Structuring Risk Quantification and Displaying Results: Models for Accident Probabilities and ConsequencesExample: Bug-Counting Models of Software Reliability; Example: Risk Management Decision Rules for Dams and Reservoirs; Example: Different Individual Risks for the Same Exceedance Probability Curve; Quantifying Model Components and Inputs; Modeling Interdependent Inputs and Events; Example: Analysis of Accident Precursors; Example: Flight-Crew Alertness; Some Alternatives to Subjective Prior Distributions; Example: Effects of Exposure to Contaminated Soil Example: The ''Rule of Three'' for Negative EvidenceExample: A Sharp Transition in a Symmetric Multistage Model of Carcinogenesis; Dealing with Model Uncertainty: Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Alternatives; Risk Characterization; Engineering vs. Financial Characterizations of ''Risk'': Why Risk Is Not Variance; Incompatibility of Two Suggested Principles for Financial Risk Analysis; Challenges in Communicating the Results of PRAs; Methods for Risk Management Decision Making; Example: A Bounded-Regret Strategy for Replacing Unreliable Equipment; Methods of Risk Management to Avoid Game-Theory Models for Risk Management Decision Making |
ISBN: | 978-0-387-89014-2 ; 978-0-387-89013-5 ; 978-0-387-89013-5 |
Other identifiers: | 10.1007/978-0-387-89014-2 [DOI] |
Classification: | Methoden und Techniken der Betriebswirtschaft |
Source: | ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013521181