Risks of deflation versus risks of excessive inflation in Europe

Economists are currently divided over the question of what represents a more immediate threat to the global economy - deflation or excessive infl ation. Using stochastic simulations, this article extrapolates the likely inflation rates in individual European countries and the euro area as a whole. The results indicate that as the financial crisis continues to subside, policymakers should be vigilant about expeditiously rolling back the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented during the crisis.