Rules, participants, and executive politics in state tax revenue forecasting

This study examines whether rules, particular participants, and executive politics in state tax revenue estimation exert measurable influences on forecast error. Fixed-effects estimation using data from states’ respective fiscal years 1994 to 2003 indicates that all impact state tax revenue forecast accuracy in varying ways, and results suggest that policy can be crafted to effectively mitigate forecast error. Further examination of the quality of participation in tax revenue forecasting as well as the mechanisms of political involvement in this arena is suggested.