Russian Federation Monthly Economic Developments

Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimates and high-frequency indicators suggest continued weakness in the economy even before the latest round of economic sanctions introduced by the European Union (EU), the United States (U.S.), and other countries in late July. The World Bank maintains its current 0.5 percent growth projection for 2014. Inflation slowed in July, but the wide-ranging ban on food imports the Russian authorities introduced in early August will likely increase short-term inflationary pressure and put the Central Bank s 2014 inflation target further out of reach. Pressure on the Ruble resumed on the back of escalating geopolitical tension and advanced sanctions. The continued slowdown in Russia comes amid a sharp rebound in economic growth in the U.S. in the second quarter and a modest pickup in activity in China, while external financing conditions for developing countries remain favorable, reflecting continued accommodative policies in high-income economies. Global oil prices reversed their course in July as geopolitical risks emanating out of Iraq abated, but the ban of EU exports of oil drilling technology to Russia can drive up prices again