S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China
A newly emerging area in international economics looks at the cross-correlation coefficient between past and future values of the trade balance and movement in the current exchange rate as a way of analyzing the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes. Since the cross-correlation function follows a symmetric pattern, it comes under the heading of the S-Curve. Previous studies have considered the experience of developed and developing countries with the S-Curve, excluding China. In this paper we consider the Chinese experience. We show that when aggregate trade data between China and the U.S. are considered, there is no evidence of the S-Curve. However, when the data are disaggregated by commodity, the S-Curve is supported in almost 50% of the close to 100 industries considered. Furthermore, it appears that commodity types do not have any influence in determining the existence of an S-Curve pattern.
Year of publication: |
2010
|
---|---|
Authors: | Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen ; Ratha, Artatrana |
Published in: |
China Economic Review. - Elsevier, ISSN 1043-951X. - Vol. 21.2010, 2, p. 212-223
|
Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Subject: | S-Curve Commodity trade China U.S |
Saved in:
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